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Friday, November 16, 2018

Commercial analysis




Caution encouraged despite upward trend in global economic activity

Global economic activity continues to firm up, concludes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recently published World Economic Outlook report, coinciding with the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Global growth will continue to strengthen this year and next, but a build-up of debt poses risks and policymakers must avoid complacency", IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in Davos,...... Login to view this article


Moore Stephens Shipping Confidence Survey

Shipping accountants and consultants, Moore Stephens, has created a tool that samples and indexes market sentiment in the shipping industry and is calling on those in the industry to take a short survey to help enrich data that will ultimately: “help you by providing you with the results, helping you see the bigger picture, and so helping you improve your own decision-making.” The survey takes ...... Login to view this article


Argus Media: Opec sees decline in call on its crude in 2018

Demand for Opec's crude will be squeezed in 2018 by growth in North American production and higher Opec NGLs output, according to a recent article published by Argus Media. Opec sees demand for its crude at 32.2mn b/d in 2018, 100,000 b/d lower than the forecast for this year, which is for 300,000 b/d year-on-year growth. Giving its first forecasts for 2018 supply and demand, the Opec Monthly O...... Login to view this article


Moore Stephens: Shipping confidence hits three-year high

Shipping confidence reached its equal highest rating in the past three years in the three months to end-May 2017, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. The average confidence level expressed by survey respondents was up to 6.1 out of 10.0 from the 5.6 recorded in the previous survey in February 2017. Increased...... Login to view this article


Argus Media: Opec trims US, non-Opec supply forecast for 2017

Opec’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) says that US tight crude output and the country’s total oil production will grow slightly slower this year than previously expected, after recording lower-than-anticipated output in January-March, according to a recent article published by Argus Media. But it held its overarching global demand growth forecast. And both a contraction in predicted non-Opec...... Login to view this article


Indian refiners buy Urals on narrow Brent-Dubai EFS

A persistently narrow Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) spread continues to underpin a steady flow of Atlantic Basin sour Urals crude to the Asia-Pacific region.... Login to view this article


EIA reveals US crude stocks down by 930,000 bl

Argus Media has reported data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing that US crude stocks fell by 930,000 bl to 527.8mn bl last week amid a drop in imports.

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Chinese crude imports hit record high in March

Chinese crude imports picked up by 11% month-on-month and by 14% on the year to a record 9.2mn b/d in March, as a strong increase in Angolan purchases offset declines in some other Opec supply, according to a recent article by Argus Media. China's purchases of foreign crude had previously topped at around 8.6mn b/d in December when the government urged independent refiners to use up their yearl...... Login to view this article


Argus Media: Iranian liquids exports reach record 3mn b/d

Our friends at Argus Media recently reported that Iranian crude and condensate exports have reached a new record – with their kind permission, we reproduce their report here in full. Iranian crude and condensate exports exceeded 3mn b/d in the final days of the Iranian calendar month of Esfand (19 February to 20 March), in line with state expectations. Liquids exports hit 3.05mn b/d, of which...... Login to view this article


Poten & Partners: Tight Oil Unleashed – international tanker market set to benefit

In April 2015, US crude oil production reached 9.627 million barrels per day (mb/d). This was the highest production level since the early 1970s, when US crude oil output briefly exceeded 10 mb/d. One of the biggest differences between production in the 1970s and now is the source of the crude oil. Substantially all of the US production 45 years ago came from regular onshore fields in the Lower...... Login to view this article


MSI Tanker Market Outlook Q1 2017

Tanker markets have moved unequivocally downwards in the first two months of 2017. Given the weakness seen in Q3, some seasonal retreat appeared inevitable as spot markets ascended in Q4. Fluctuations in the spot market have been abrupt with the range of rates seen over 2016 encompassing most of the extremes of an envelope typically seen over a full cycle. Judging where we are in the tanker cyc...... Login to view this article


IEA: Oil demand to outstrip supply if funding for new projects not approved

The Paris Based International Energy Agency (IEA) has said in its latest five-year oil market forecast that global oil supply could struggle to keep pace with demand after 2020, risking a sharp increase in prices, unless new projects are approved soon. The global picture appears comfortable for the next three years but supply growth slows considerably after that, according to Oil 2017, the IEA’...... Login to view this article


McQuilling releases 20th Anniversary edition of its Tanker Market Outlook

McQuilling Services, the marine transportation consulting and advisory group of McQuilling Partners Inc, has issued the 20th Anniversary edition 2017-2021 of its Tanker Market Outlook. This 200-page report provides a five-year spot and time charter equivalent (TCE) outlook for eight vessel classes across 19 benchmark tanker trades, plus two triangulated trades. The report also includes a robust...... Login to view this article


Gibson Ship Brokers: Recycling totals climb slowly in 2016

Without the sale of two VLCCs in the final quarter of last year, tanker deadweight recycling totals would have been only slightly above the 2015 final figure. In deadweight terms tonnage sold for demolition in 2016 amounted to 2.46 million tonnes, just 33 units (25,000 dwt+). Once again healthy earnings across most tanker sectors did little to encourage scrapping. The extremely young age profil...... Login to view this article


Moore Stephens: Shipping confidence hits 15-month high

Shipping confidence improved for the third successive quarter in the three months to end-November 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. In November 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.6 out of 10.0, equalling the highest rating since August 2015. All categories of respondents expressed increase...... Login to view this article


LNG Markets: Asian spot LNG in largest monthly surge since February 13 peak

LNG demand from China and South Korea, as well as Australian supply outages, helped raise East Asian spot LNG prices to the largest month-on-month gain since the peak of the last super cycle in February 2013. The ICIS January 17 East Asia Index (EAX) was assessed for the final time at $9.20/MMBtu on 15 December, climbing $1.95/MMBtu since becoming the front month on 16 November. It was the...... Login to view this article


Reuters: Oil prices surge, trading volume records smashed as OPEC and Russia agree output cut

Crude oil prices steadied around $50 a barrel on Thursday, holding onto most of the big gains made after OPEC and Russia agreed to restrict production, even as analysts warned other producers were likely to top up supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Wednesday its first oil output reduction since 2008 after de-facto leader Saudi Arabia accepted "a big hit" and...... Login to view this article


Poten & Partners: Worldscale 2017 flat rates will be down due lower bunker prices

As we are approaching the end of another eventful year in the tanker market, owners and charterers alike are waiting for the new Worldscale (WS) book to arrive in the mail (or, more likely, become available on the internet). Starting on the first trading day of 2017, Monday 2 January, tanker market participants will start to transition from the 2016 Worldscale rates to the 2017 rates. The chang...... Login to view this article


IEA warns of oil price fall if supply glut persists

Oil prices could fall next year if the supply surplus persists, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). The energy watchdog also expects Opec’s Vienna meeting on 30 November to have “a major impact on the eventual – and oft-postponed – rebalancing of the oil market” whatever its outcome. “If the Opec countries do implement their Algiers resolution, the resultant producti...... Login to view this article


Tanker ordering in otherwise mild newbuilding activity

While newbuilding activity remains subdued overall, shipbrokers have started noticing some mild activity in the tanker department. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking notes that “there was another small trickle of tanker orders emerging this week, with most notable the order secured by S. Korea’s Samsung for two separate high spec orders by Norway’s Viken Shipping (2...... Login to view this article

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Bill Box
Senior Manager, Commercial
P: +44 20 7977 7023