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Saturday, February 25, 2017

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13.01.2017

Gibson Ship Brokers: Recycling totals climb slowly in 2016

Without the sale of two VLCCs in the final quarter of last year, tanker deadweight recycling totals would have been only slightly above the 2015 final figure. In deadweight terms tonnage sold for demolition in 2016 amounted to 2.46 million tonnes, just 33 units (25,000 dwt+). Once again healthy earnings across most tanker sectors did little to encourage scrapping. The extremely young age profil...... Login to view this article

22.12.2016

Moore Stephens: Shipping confidence hits 15-month high

Shipping confidence improved for the third successive quarter in the three months to end-November 2016, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. In November 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was 5.6 out of 10.0, equalling the highest rating since August 2015. All categories of respondents expressed increase...... Login to view this article

22.12.2016

LNG Markets: Asian spot LNG in largest monthly surge since February 13 peak

LNG demand from China and South Korea, as well as Australian supply outages, helped raise East Asian spot LNG prices to the largest month-on-month gain since the peak of the last super cycle in February 2013. The ICIS January 17 East Asia Index (EAX) was assessed for the final time at $9.20/MMBtu on 15 December, climbing $1.95/MMBtu since becoming the front month on 16 November. It was the...... Login to view this article

02.12.2016

Reuters: Oil prices surge, trading volume records smashed as OPEC and Russia agree output cut

Crude oil prices steadied around $50 a barrel on Thursday, holding onto most of the big gains made after OPEC and Russia agreed to restrict production, even as analysts warned other producers were likely to top up supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Wednesday its first oil output reduction since 2008 after de-facto leader Saudi Arabia accepted "a big hit" and...... Login to view this article

02.12.2016

Poten & Partners: Worldscale 2017 flat rates will be down due lower bunker prices

As we are approaching the end of another eventful year in the tanker market, owners and charterers alike are waiting for the new Worldscale (WS) book to arrive in the mail (or, more likely, become available on the internet). Starting on the first trading day of 2017, Monday 2 January, tanker market participants will start to transition from the 2016 Worldscale rates to the 2017 rates. The chang...... Login to view this article

10.11.2016

IEA warns of oil price fall if supply glut persists

Oil prices could fall next year if the supply surplus persists, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). The energy watchdog also expects Opec’s Vienna meeting on 30 November to have “a major impact on the eventual – and oft-postponed – rebalancing of the oil market” whatever its outcome. “If the Opec countries do implement their Algiers resolution, the resultant producti...... Login to view this article

28.10.2016

Tanker ordering in otherwise mild newbuilding activity

While newbuilding activity remains subdued overall, shipbrokers have started noticing some mild activity in the tanker department. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking notes that “there was another small trickle of tanker orders emerging this week, with most notable the order secured by S. Korea’s Samsung for two separate high spec orders by Norway’s Viken Shipping (2...... Login to view this article

20.05.2016

Adieu – a short market review after 30 years with INTERTANKO

Everything must come to an end. I have been with INTERTANKO for more than 30 years – too long… far too long. During this time I have been following several tanker market cycles. It has been like continuously feeling the pulse of world politics and economy. It is the dramatic turning points we are looking for but hardly ever can see, we just know they are coming. I have used many sources to try...... Login to view this article

06.05.2016

The fleet is increasing…

Sales for scrapping have been meagre so far in 2016, one VLCC, one aframax, six MRs, and two smaller tankers. The newest tanker sold was the VLCC Faridah built in 1995, which was actually an FSO. Deliveries are, on the other hand, increasing. McQuilling expects the following to be delivered this year: 61 VLCCs, 41 suezmaxes, 41 aframaxes, 29 LR2s, 6 panamaxes, 28 LR1s, and 68 MRs.   The light...... Login to view this article

06.05.2016

Employment old/new VLCCs

By using http://www.marinetraffic.com/ we have looked at the 115 VLCCs we have recorded as being built up to 2000. The below graph shows that many of these are not trading, 16% were anchored in ballast, 24% anchored laden probably many used for storage, 15% were in a stopped position, 9% were moored, and just under 36% were reported to be under way at an average speed of 11.4 knots.   To compar...... Login to view this article

29.04.2016

NITC fleet yet to fully operate in active trading

One of the wild cards this year has been the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) 13.6 m dwt tanker fleet, which has largely been inactive and used for storage. The fleet, which we know includes 37 VLCCs, nine suezmaxes, five aframaxes and three smaller tankers appears to have an additional five vessels we cannot find any trading record for. When we look at the current activity of this fleet...... Login to view this article

22.04.2016

US crude oil stocks at an all-time high

US Crude oil stocks are at an all-time high, as is illustrated in the graph below: US crude oil imports up until 15 April were the highest since 2012 for this period. OECD total stocks stood at 100 days’ forward use the last quarter of 2015 compared to 93 days for the same period in 2014 and 91 days for the same quarter in 2013. China growing its reserves China increased its strategic reserves ...... Login to view this article

15.04.2016

DNB predicts good LPG summer market

DNB says in its latest market report that the summer season could lead to a spike in rates, as the firm believes current fleet utilisation is high. Inventory draws should push 2016 US LPG exports to another all-time high, while US propane dehydrogenation (PDH) facilities are likely to disincentive propane consumption in US steam-crackers, boosting the amount of LPG available for export, which...... Login to view this article

15.04.2016

IEA monthly report: Non-OPEC production declining

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest monthly report. Here we present the pertinent points contained within. Growth in global oil demand will ease to around 1.2 mbd in 2016, below 2015’s 1.8 mbd expansion , as notable decelerations take hold across China, the US and much of Europe. Preliminary 1Q16 data reveal this is already occurring, with year-on-year grow...... Login to view this article

08.04.2016

Spotlight on suezmaxes

It has been VLCCs that have benefitted the most from the surge in the tanker market this year, while suezmaxes have so far this year fallen marginally behind the aframaxes according to the benchmark routes we are following. The main suezmax trade is West Africa to Europe. According to Fearnleys, suezmax tonne-miles ended at a soft 0.7% growth last year. Volumes traded grew by a strong 6.7%...... Login to view this article

01.04.2016

Global trade retracting

Total global trade, by way of an opposite to trade in oil, retracted in 2015 for the first time since the doldrums in the 1970s, except for 2009 when the full effect for the financial crises hit all trades. Some have begun to talk about peak trade. At the same time as the movement of commodities and hardware has retracted, data-flows increased by 53% from 2007 to 2014, according to McKinsey....... Login to view this article

18.03.2016

Product trades and refinery capacities

Of the most important indicators for the futures oil product trades are developments in the refineries.  The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Medium Term Report offers details of refinery capacity expansions, and additions, until 2021. The largest refinery expansion according to planned projects is the Middle East, which expanded by 0.417 mbd in 2015, and is expected to expand by...... Login to view this article

11.03.2016

Oil market expected to balance end 2017

According to the US-based Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term outlook as issued this week, US crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 mbd in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 md in 2016 and 8.2 mbd in 2017. The EIA estimates that crude oil production in February averaged 9.1 mbd, which was 0.08 mbd below January’s level. US oil production is one of the most essenti...... Login to view this article

04.03.2016

What did you learn in school today?

INTERTANKO’s Senior Manager, Research and Projects, following a week of seminars and meetings on the subject, offers his take on the state of the oil and tanker market. ------------------ “I have been to three short seminars this week at DNB, Bloomberg and the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) and I had hoped that I would see the situation in the oil and tanker market more clearly....... Login to view this article

26.02.2016

Oil trades will continue to increase, but not by much

The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Medium Term Report says that global trade is yet to peak but will climb steadily to hit 27 mbd in 2017 as consuming economies take advantage of low oil price to build inventories. US imports are set to rebound as domestic production slows. Thereafter, traded volumes will decline as refiners are forecast to draw inventories and US production...... Login to view this article